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Jan
31

How to create a Pharma Vulnerability Index (PVI)

Yesterday I think I hit a nerve and may have kick started one of the book projects laying dormant .

My gut feelings based on recent observation lead to proposing a Pharma Vulnerability Index. I just threw it out there. pretty sure that anyone who follows big pharma stock as a job or hobby probably has a better inside track or method to do this. So it got me thinking. What if we really could create a proper open analysis (in full transparency) of the major pharmas so everyone could chime in if they wanted and kick the wheels.. How would we best do it?

As always, I figured you have to start somewhere. A simple excel sheet listing companies, major sites, and some descriptors. Which leaves it open to what would you use? The number of compounds in the pipeline, recent failures, the technologies used, therapeutic areas addressed or functions of each site? Get the idea.

You would think this would be difficult, but no every pharma has a website and most of the information is there for the taking. Sure it may be a bit fuzzy. OK this gets you a company / site snapshot but how do we dig deeper and see whether a site / company is skating on thin ice? That is probably the tricky bit. Can we look at papers/ patents/ productivity heck even people?

Well in summary, I have started, it may take a while to create a preliminary analysis but I am game. I still think that it will come down to a bit of a gut feel, but I am open to ideas to make this semi- quantitative. Its not rocket science because clearly internally companies are doing this kind of thing when they make the call on which sites to cut/downsize.

But what if we flip this around. If you were to build a new site for your company, where would you put it. Somewhere close to the skillsets, consider tax incentives, proximity to travel hubs etc?

This could be a semi useful tool if you were looking to relocate, which might be a bit more stable of an option. I know its not my day job, but someone has to do it!

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